This talk will play with several such probability paradoxa, and explore Bayes' formula (likely THE most important mathematical formula - assuming the concern is to answer the everyday questions above...)
Perhaps the most essential question we can ask about our collection of programs is not which programs finish and output results as expected, but rather which programs finish, period. For example, a program which outputs the least prime greater than the input will always halt, because there are always more primes. But, given a polynomial, a program which outputs the least root greater than the input will not halt: there are only finitely many roots.
I will discuss the following problem: given a fixed input, can we determine which programs will eventually halt on that input and which will not? I will do so by first defining the partial recursive functions. These formalize the intuitive idea of tangible computation. Finally, time permitting, I will state Rice's theorem which determines exactly which properties, such as halting, we can detect.