A Mathematical Look at Snow and Avalanches

Dedicated to the memory of Seth Shaw.

David Eyre

Forest Service Utah Avalanche Forecast Center
Avalanche Advisory, November 22, 1999
"Looking into the future, our current snow pack is thin and loosely packed. The weather forecast for the next week is for cold temperatures and hardly any new snow. This will quickly turn the snow cover to weak faceted crystals. So, when we get a significant storm in the future expect widespread avalanches."

Seth Shaw

How does he know this?

Can we mathematically model it?