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Math Biology Summer REU |
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Abstract: Epidemic (disease spread) "Outbreak!" ... "Epidemic!" ... "Pandemic!" ... "Biological Warfare!" ... These and other attention-grabbing headlines spread fear into the minds of people around the world. Infections caused by long-known pathogens (anthrax, measles, smallpox, ...) and newly-emerging pathogens (ebola, SARS, swine flu, ...) have appeared in the news in recent years. What are scientists doing to study, predict, and prepare for the spread of known and yet-to-emerge infectious diseases? Can mathematical modeling help public health workers prepare for future outbreaks and design strategies to limit the damage or extent of disease spread? Among the numerous topics being tackled with the help of mathematical modelers are: Seasonality: Why do some diseases, like the flu, appear much more often in one season than another? How predictable are the yearly trends, and how can this information be used to prepare for yearly outbreaks and understand the properties and evolution of a particular pathogen? Intervention strategy: How can we design the best strategy for administering vaccines (if available)? How effective are policies like isolation, quarantine, and school closure in limiting the spread of new, contagious pathogen? Bio-defense: If a dangerous pathogen escapes from a laboratory or is released by terrorists, what would happen? How widely could a released pathogen spread under different scenarios? How do we quantify the risk to our local communities, our country, and the world? New and imagined scenarios: What are the implications of hypothetical new diseases that are unlike any that have appeared before? Dare we imagine what would happen if a horror movie scenario comes to life? How can we stop the zombie-apocalypse?? This summer, we will work to understand some of these questions and experience how mathematical modeling and simulation can shed light on important issues in epidemiology. home |
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