Mathematical Biology Seminar

Jonathan Butner, Dept of Psychology, U of U
Wednesday, November 3, 2021
3:05pm on Zoom
Mapping Topography of Type 1 Diabetes

Abstract: Type 1 diabetes is a chronic illness where the individual must function as their own external pancreas monitoring and adjusting blood glucose throughout the day. In this talk we will investigate the dynamics of blood glucose for a sample of 20 individuals for several months, measured every 5 minutes. Both the zeroth and first derivatives in blood glucose were treated as state variables for where it should go next. A nonlinear dynamic model was then estimated and then validated using mixture modeling of the key systems parameters . This formed a piecewise approach where people moved between different dynamic features on a moment to moment basis. Finally a topographical map was built from the 21 unique dynamics dictating both what was occurring within each pattern and the likely transitions across patterns - a dynamic system of dynamic systems. This map provides useful clinical information as it can inform how one might help transition a person to safer dynamics once the current topographical location is known.